For the first time, minority children are driving the increase
April 16, 2025
Key Takeaways:
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Autism rates reach historic high: About 1 in 31 children in the U.S. (3.2%) are now identified with autism, marking a 22% rise since 2020 and a 375% increase since 2000.
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Demographic shift: For the first time, autism is more prevalent among minority children than white children, reversing long-standing trends.
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Unexplained rise and service implications: Experts question the idea that awareness or diagnostic criteria alone explain the surge, emphasizing the urgent need to explore environmental factors and expand support services.
Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnoses in the United States have soared to an all-time high, with approximately one in every 31 children3.2% of the populationnow identified with the condition, according to a new report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The findings reflect a 22% increase since 2020 and a staggering 375% increase since the CDCs Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network began tracking prevalence in 2000.
The CDCs report, which analyzed data from 16 U.S. communities, also uncovers a profound demographic and geographic shift in autism diagnoses, highlighting changing patterns in who is affected and raising questions about why.
A new demographic landscape
For the first time since national monitoring began, autism rates are higher among minority children than white children. Prevalence per 1,000 children was highest among Asian and Pacific Islander (38.2), American Indian and Alaska Native (37.5), Black (36.6), and Hispanic (33.0) populations. In contrast, white children had a prevalence rate of 27.7 per 1,000.
“This represents a very interesting and not well-understood shift in the demographic profile of autism,” Walter Zahorodny, coauthor of the report, said in a press release.
Once more prevalent in affluent, predominantly white communities, autism is now more commonly diagnosed among children in minority and lower-income neighborhoods.
Geographic and economic contrasts
The ADDM Network’s data also revealed significant geographic differences. Rates ranged from a low of 9.7 per 1,000 children in Laredo, Texas, to a high of 53.1 in parts of San Diego, California. Additionally, five monitoring sites reported higher autism prevalence in areas with lower median household incomesa reversal of earlier patterns when affluence was more closely associated with autism diagnosis.
These findings suggest that earlier disparities in access to diagnosis and services may have lessened, though they also point to new and poorly understood dynamics in autisms distribution.
The CDC’s report shows that efforts to promote early diagnosis have paid off. Children born in 2018 were 1.7 times more likely to be diagnosed with autism by age 4 than those born in 2014, despite temporary disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Early identification is critical, the CDC notes, as it helps ensure that children can receive developmental services and support that can improve their long-term outcomes.
Unanswered questions about causes
Despite the dramatic increase in autism prevalence, scientists still lack clear answers about whats driving the trend. Zahorodny dismissed the long-held assumption that better awareness and broader diagnostic criteria fully explain the rise.
The idea that this is all due to awareness or shifting definitions is not just insufficientits incorrect, he said. Notably, when autism diagnostic criteria changed in 2013, they actually became more restrictive.
Most research to date has focused on genetic factors, yielding limited insight. Few studies have seriously explored environmental contributors, despite evidence that factors like parental age, cesarean delivery, and certain maternal medications may pose risksthough none explain the dramatic scale of increase.
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