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Gas prices could be the lowest in 2025's summer since 2020
April 10, 2025
Key takeaways:
- Changes in trade policy, namely tariffs,and oil production are expected to lower gas prices.
- Gas prices are expected to come down to around$3.10 a gallon in 2025 and 2026 from $3.30 a gallon in 2024.
- Still, there is uncertainty about how oil markets could react in the coming months if trade policy continues to change.
One benefitfrom tariffs could be seen at the pump.
Recent developments in global trade policy and oil production are expected to lower demand growth for U.S.-exported petroleum through 2026, sending gas prices down, according to the latest short-term outlook from the Energy Information Administration.
The EIA said it expects gas prices to be around $3.10 a gallon in 2025 and 2026, down from $3.30 a gallon in 2024.
“If the forecast holds, this price would be the lowest inflation-adjusted summer average gasoline price since 2020,” the EIA said.
President Trump’s announcements of tariffs sent the price of brent crude down 12% to $68 a barrel on April 2, the EIA said.
Inflation also declined in March for the first time in five years, largely because of lower gas prices, according to the Consumer Price Index.
But there is other uncertainty about the future of trade policy and how that will affect gas prices, the EIA said.
For instance, existing sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, which could change,are also affecting oil prices, the EIA said.
Propane prices are also expected to lower due to tariffs weakening demanddemand from China, which is a major importer of U.S. propane, the EIA said.
The EIA said it expects propane prices to fall to 50 cents a gallon in 2026 from 80 cents a gallon in 2025.
“Some propane previously exported to China will likely find new destinations.” the EIA said.
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