Trump imposes new duties on Mexican tomatoes

The Trump administration is preparing to impose new duties on fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico, signaling an escalation in its protectionist trade strategyeven as it pulls back elsewhere. The U.S. Commerce Department announced it will terminate a decades-old agreement that has regulated tomato imports since 1996, clearing the way for a 20.9% tariff starting in July unless a new deal is reached.

The move, officials said, is intended to protect American tomato growersparticularly those in Floridafrom what they describe as unfair pricing by Mexican producers. But agriculture economists and industry leaders warn the policy will likely have a swift impact on American consumers, with prices for common varieties like grape and cherry tomatoes expected to rise, potentially by 10% or more.

The current agreement has failed to protect U.S. tomato growers from unfairly priced Mexican imports, said the Commerce Department, defending the policy change as a path to fairer competition.

Price spikes ahead?

More than 70% of the tomatoes consumed in the United States are imported from Mexico, where favorable growing conditions and lower costs make year-round production viable. David Ortega, a food economics professor at Michigan State University, said in a Wall Street Journal reportthat U.S. farms simply dont have the capacity to replace that volume in the short termand even if they could, domestic production costs are much higher.

The price of a one-pint package of grape tomatoes in early April averaged $2.48, according to USDA data. Tomato companies warn that prices could surge if duties go into effect and imports decline.

NatureSweet, a San Antonio-based company that grows much of its supply in Mexican greenhouses, estimates it could face more than $1 million a week in new duties.

Political, economic fallout

The termination of the agreement marks a victory for protectionist voices in Trumps trade circle, including White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, who helped architect the tariff-heavy strategy. The decision came as a surprise to many in the industry, some of whom learned of it via a call from Chris Abbott, a Georgetown law student and deputy assistant secretary at the Commerce Department.

Mexicos Agriculture Secretary Julio Berdegu denied claims that Mexican tomatoes are sold below cost, and officials hope to renegotiate before the tariffs hit. But without a deal, the minimum pricing rules under the 1996 agreement will be void, and fresh tomatoes entering the U.S. will be subject to duties, affecting everyone from wholesalers to grocery shoppers.

Meanwhile, U.S. tomato producers, whose share of the market has dropped from 80% in 1996 to just 30% today, welcomed the move. Robert Guenther of the Florida Tomato Exchange dismissed concerns of price hikes, arguing that companies growing in Mexico wont stop overnight and that U.S. consumers will benefit from fresher, local options.

The agreement was briefly scrapped in 2019 before a last-minute deal restored it. Whether history repeats itself will depend on the success of ongoing negotiationsand the willingness of consumers to pay more for their produce in the meantime.