Gas prices tick higher but could be under $3 a gallon this summer

The decision by OPEC+ to boost production may provide relief

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

May 6, 2025

• The nations average price of gasoline has risen for the first time in nearly a month, climbing 2 cents over the past week to $3.12 per gallon.

• The national average is down 12.0 cents from a month ago and 49.6 cents per gallon below where it stood a year ago.

• Diesel prices also ticked up slightly, rising 0.2 cents to an average of $3.501 per gallon.

Motorists across the U.S. saw a modest increase in gasoline prices this week the first such rise in nearly a month according to the latest data from GasBuddy. The national average climbed 2 cents to $3.12 per gallon, based on more than 12 million price reports from over 150,000 stations. Although prices are slightly up week-over-week, they remain significantly lower than both last month and last year.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, called it a “mixed bag” for drivers as regional volatility continued. Slightly more than half of U.S. states saw prices go up, De Haan said in the GasBuddy blog, highlighting sharp cyclical price jumps in areas such as the Great Lakes, Florida, Texas, and Maryland.

However, he pointed to potentially positive developments ahead, especially the announcement from OPEC+ to boost oil production beginning in June.

OPEC+ decision and oil market trends

Oil markets reacted sharply to news that OPEC+ will increase production by over 400,000 barrels per day next month. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $57.47 per barrel in early Monday trading, a drop of over $5 from the previous week. Brent crude also saw a significant decline, falling to $60.51 per barrel.

This downward pressure on oil prices which are now nearing pandemic-era lows could pave the way for a meaningful drop in gas prices this summer, according to GasBuddy projections. That said, some caution remains as U.S. oil production continues to dip. The domestic rig count fell by three this week and is now 21 rigs lower than a year ago, signaling a slowdown in drilling activity by U.S. producers.

Inventories and refinery outlook

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that gasoline inventories dropped by 4 million barrels, now 4% below the five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization rose slightly to 88.6%, and implied demand for gasoline decreased by over 300,000 barrels per day, likely a result of regional price cycling and consumer caution.

With the spring refinery maintenance season wrapping up, gasoline output is expected to rebound. This could bolster supply just in time for peak summer travel potentially pushing the national average below the $3 mark if oil prices remain low and demand doesn’t surge unexpectedly.

Gas prices remain highly uneven across the country. Mississippi, Louisiana, and Tennessee continue to boast the lowest averages, all under $2.70 per gallon. In stark contrast, California tops the charts at $4.70 per gallon, followed by Hawaii and Washington.

Notably, states like Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan experienced the largest weekly price hikes all over 13 cents driven by localized pricing cycles. Meanwhile, Tennessee saw one of the steepest declines, with prices dropping nearly 8 cents per gallon.

Summer outlook: Under $3 gas possible

Despite the recent uptick, analysts remain optimistic that gas prices could soon dip below the $3 mark nationally. With OPEC+ bringing more oil to market, and U.S. refiners resuming full operations, a softening in fuel prices may be on the horizon welcome news for drivers preparing for summer road trips.

For now, the most commonly encountered gas price remains $2.99 per gallon, and the median price sits just below the national average at the same level signs that cheaper fuel is accessible for many Americans.

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