Young adults are now the least likely to light up
of ConsumerAffairsApril 29, 2025
Key takeaways
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Youth drive smoking decline: Researchers found cigarette smoking is declining rapidly in the U.S., particularly among young adults, with national rates projected to fall below 5% by 2035.
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Older adults lag behind: Smoking cessation among adults over 50 remains slow, potentially extending the burden of smoking-related diseases like lung cancer and heart disease.
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Regional shifts and future concerns: States with historically high smoking rates showed the most dramatic declines, but researchers warn about rising e-cigarette use among teenagers.
If you stumble across movies or TV shows from the 1950s, its almost jarring to see so many people smoking cigarettes. Almost every indoor venue now bans smoking, so seeing someone light up is a much less common scene.
Researchers at the University of California San Diego say the decline is real, documenting a continuing drop in cigarette smoking across the United States, led largely by young adults. Their findings suggest that the national smoking rate could drop below 5% by 2035, signaling a potential end to the cigarette smoking epidemic within a generation.
“The rapid decline in smoking among young adults is clear evidence that the smoking epidemic will come to an end in our lifetime,” Matthew Stone, the studys lead author, said in a press release.
Geographic and demographic variations
The study, based on data from 1.77 million respondents to the Tobacco Use Supplements to the U.S. Census Bureaus Current Population Survey, revealed significant geographical and demographic variations. Notably, states with historically high smoking rates, such as Kentucky and West Virginia, have experienced the most pronounced declines since the 1990s. Despite these improvements, disparities remain among age, race, ethnicity, and education levels.
While young adults are rapidly quitting, the study found that adults over 50 have been much slower to give up smoking, particularly in areas where it was once most prevalent. This sluggish progress threatens to extend the toll of smoking-related diseases including lung cancer, heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for years to come.
“The slower decline among older adults will mean that the high rates of smoking-related illnesses will take longer to decrease, even as overall smoking rates fall,” Stone said.
Since the 1950s, when the link between smoking and lung cancer first became clear, U.S. smoking rates have plummeted from nearly 57% in 1955 to around 12.5% in 2022. Researchers project a further 50% reduction by 2035 if current trends persist. States that led the way in cutting smoking rates have already begun to see corresponding declines in lung cancer deaths, typically with a 16-year delay.
However, researchers cautioned that the fight against nicotine addiction is far from over. John Pierce, senior author of the study, noted a troubling shift:
“Recent evidence suggests that the tobacco industry has successfully recruited a new generation of teenagers into e-cigarette use and nicotine addiction, he said. Further research is needed to assess the long-term impact of this shift.”
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